3D dynamic rupture simulations for the potential main Marmara fault earthquake in the sea of Marmara based on the inter‐seismic strain accumulation.

Korkusuz Öztürk Y., Konca A. Ö., Meral Özel N.

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH. SOLID EARTH, cilt.130, sa.7, ss.1-23, 2025 (SCI-Expanded, Scopus)

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 130 Sayı: 7
  • Basım Tarihi: 2025
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1029/2024jb029585
  • Dergi Adı: JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH. SOLID EARTH
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, Academic Search Premier, Aerospace Database, Agricultural & Environmental Science Database, Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA), Communication Abstracts, Environment Index, Geobase, INSPEC, Metadex, Civil Engineering Abstracts, Nature Index
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.1-23
  • Erzincan Binali Yıldırım Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

The northern strand of the North Anatolian Fault (NAF), the Main Marmara Fault (MMF), poses a

significant earthquake risk due to a ∼120 km seismic gap situated between the Mw7.4 1912 Ganos and Mw7.4

1999 İzmit earthquakes. We generate realistic 3D dynamic earthquake rupture scenarios on the MMF,

considering the non‐planar geometry and heterogeneous initial stress distributions. Initial shear stress

distributions are implemented by considering strain accumulation during the interseismic period due to

heterogeneous fault coupling and slip rates, and stress release due to past earthquakes constrained from

historical earthquake catalogs and turbidity records. A total of 87 rupture scenarios are generated, two of which

are designed to test the robustness of our simulations, by considering various possible initial stress distributions

and rupture initiation points. Scenarios indicate that Kumburgaz Basin and Princes' Islands (PI) segments are

likely to rupture. However, due to possible low coupling and past ruptures, the moment magnitude of the

expected earthquake may not exceed Mw7.4. The rupture does not enter into the İzmit Segment (IS) due to its

rupture in 1999, but it may propagate to the 1912 rupture zone toward the west due to accumulated strain since

then. Peak Ground Velocities(PGV) are calculated assuming that the region's complex 3D velocity structure can

be modeled as a homogeneous elastic half‐space. With this caveat, high PGV values are estimated for the

European coast of İstanbul due to the rupture geometry and possible directivity. This underscores the urgent

need for disaster mitigation in these high‐risk areas.