Prediction of groundwater drought based on hydro-meteorological insights via machine learning approaches

Kartal V., KATİPOĞLU O. M., Karakoyun E., Simsek O., Yavuz V. S., Ariman S.

Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, cilt.136, 2024 (SCI-Expanded) identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 136
  • Basım Tarihi: 2024
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1016/j.pce.2024.103757
  • Dergi Adı: Physics and Chemistry of the Earth
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, Academic Search Premier, Aerospace Database, Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA), Artic & Antarctic Regions, Chimica, Communication Abstracts, Compendex, Geobase, INSPEC, Metadex, Pollution Abstracts, Civil Engineering Abstracts
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: Cognitive approaches, Drought indices, Groundwater drought, Groundwater level, Machine learning, Prediction
  • Erzincan Binali Yıldırım Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

This study aims to predict groundwater drought-based meteorological drought index using machine learning instead of traditional approaches. Groundwater drought (GWD) was predicted using machine learning methodologies such as Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest (RF), Least Squares Boosting Tree (LSBT), Generalized Linear Regression (GLR) and k-Nearest Neighbours (KNN). In addition, monthly, seasonal, and annual drought indices such as the Standardised Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), China Z Index (CZI), Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI), Z-Score Index (ZSI), Decile Index (DI), Percent of Normal Index (PNI) and Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI) were used to analyse the drought of groundwater. These traditional drought indices were modified for the assessment of groundwater drought. Moreover, groundwater drought was predicted based on the hydro-meteorological parameters (temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, rainfall, groundwater level). The applied models’ performances were evaluated via Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), R-squared (R2), Mean Bias Error (MBE), Bias Factor, and Variance Account Factor (VAF). Linear SVM is generally the best model for predicting GWD, while GLR is the second-best performing model. The KNN algorithm obtained the weakest performances. Although all types of drought and wet categories were observed, normal drought occurred more than in the other drought and wet categories. This study can contribute to the assessment of groundwater drought in regions where there is no groundwater station.