Deep learning-based forecasting modeling of micro gas turbine performance projection: An experimental approach

Kılıç U., Villareal-Valderrama F., Ayar M., Ekici S., Amezquita-Brooks L., Karakoc T. H.

Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence, vol.130, 2024 (SCI-Expanded) identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 130
  • Publication Date: 2024
  • Doi Number: 10.1016/j.engappai.2023.107769
  • Journal Name: Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence
  • Journal Indexes: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, Academic Search Premier, Aerospace Database, Applied Science & Technology Source, Communication Abstracts, Compendex, Computer & Applied Sciences, INSPEC, Metadex, Civil Engineering Abstracts
  • Keywords: Gas turbine engine, Learning algorithm, Long short-term memory (LSTM), Performance parameters, Prediction, Turbojet engine
  • Erzincan Binali Yildirim University Affiliated: Yes


Performance forecasting of aeroengines is crucial for achieving better operational efficiency, ensuring safety, reducing costs, and minimizing environmental impact in the aviation industry. It enables engineers and researchers to make informed decisions, leading to advancements in technology and the overall evolution of aviation. This study is focused on the effects of flight conditions on the performance of a turbojet, which in consequence affects the environmental aspect of operation. By investigating the relationships between aeroengine efficiency and performance indicators such as thrust, shaft speed, and exhaust gas temperature (EGT), and flight characteristics expressed in terms of environmental and operational conditions, the study seeks to elucidate these connections. The article's significance lies in its successful application of Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks to predict thrust, shaft speed, and EGT variations in turbojet engines under varying flight conditions. Experimental data from a turbojet test bench is processed with deep learning, specifically LSTM recurrent neural networks that are developed based on Matrix Laboratory (MATLAB). The model inputs are free stream air speed, compressor inlet pressure, combustor inlet temperature, combustor inlet pressure, turbine inlet temperature, turbine inlet pressure, nozzle inlet pressure and fuel flow, and the outputs are thrust, shaft speed and EGT. Predicted thrust closely aligns with actual thrust values, though with minor discrepancies. Shaft speed predictions exhibit a similar trend, while EGT predictions showcase a comparable pattern with slight variations. Despite the prediction errors, a thorough evaluation of median values, box plots, and probability density functions confirms that the models effectively capture available information, though discrepancies may arise from measurement inaccuracies and initial engine conditions. These results show that it is possible to accurately predict turbojet performance using LSTM recurrent neural network. This research paves the way for enhanced aeroengine performance prediction, particularly in scenarios requiring off-board or high-performance applications.